Super Lag Renewable

9Sep/07Off

Super Lag Renewable

Power Plant Boiler Industry Status And Development Trend Analysis

Development of the industry status quo

1. The industry size and production capacity has improved rapidly. In recent years, driven by strong demand for power generation equipment, the power plant boiler industry ushered in an unprecedented opportunity for development, has made considerable progress. According to branch of statistics, at present the industry total assets reached 64.1 billion yuan, in 2001 13.7 billion yuan, 4.7 times more. In the industry has expanded rapidly and at the same time, production capacity has increased dramatically. With the highest point of the historical value of production compared to total industrial output value (current prices) 450 billion yuan in 2001 5.3 billion to 8.5 fold. Power plant boiler output of 97.543 million kilowatts, in 2001 11.73 million kilowatts of 8.3 times. China's annual output of power generating equipment accounted for about 50% of world production, power generation equipment to the global net amount of the contribution rate of 50% or more, has become the world's largest power plant boiler manufacturer.

2. The full realization of objectives of product upgrades. More than 10 years ago, 30 kw thermal power units still need to import. By the end of 2007, 30 million kilowatts, 600,000 kilowatts and above grade units, respectively of the total installed capacity of 50.15% and 21.53%. According to branch of statistics, in 2008 the first three quarters, completed a total of 70.783 million kilowatts power plant boiler, 30 million, 600 thousand kilowatts or above grade boilers accounted for 24.6% and 51.7%, supercritical, ultra supercritical thermal power generating units have been promoted to the main machine type. As of the end of September 2008, has accumulated production for 60 million kilowatt supercritical, ultra supercritical boilers 186 units, of which: 600 thousand kilowatts rating supercritical boiler 150 units, 600,000 kilowatts class ultra supercritical boilers 15 units, 1 million kilowatts Ultra supercritical boiler 21 units (10 units have been put into operation). In digesting imported technology, based on independent innovation has developed a super critical, ultra critical and large scale circulating fluidized bed boilers. Currently, supercritical, ultra supercritical boiler technology has reached the international advanced level and become the world's most widely used large scale circulating fluidized bed boilers country.

3. The ability to participate in international competition, notably enhanced. As the size and strength of the industry, "by leaps and bounds, super normal" development, to participate in international competition, rapidly climbing the scale and speed. According to branch of statistics, in 2007 the industry exported goods worth 3.0 billion to complete the first time to break the 900 million yuan of the historical record. The completion of the first three quarters of 2008 the industry exported goods worth 4 billion yuan, an increase of 168%. In particular, independent innovation, 600,000 kilowatts of supercritical boilers, have been achieved to India, Russia, Turkey and other countries exports, marking the Chinese power plant boiler design and manufacturing standards have entered the ranks of the world's advanced. According to China Machinery and Electronic Products Import and Export Chamber of Commerce statistics, in 2007 the signing of 300,000 kilowatts of new coal fired power station contract in 31 sets of 600,000 kilowatts coal fired power station 15 sets a new contract total installed capacity reached 20 million kilowatts, the contract amounted to 15 billion U.S. dollars. First half of 2008, overseas investment projects for the 87 electric power to coordinate the amount of up to 22.9 billion U.S. dollars, of which 44 billion dollar project, the amount of some 206 billion U.S. dollars. The new contracts signed during the first half amounted to 9.2 billion U.S. dollars, India's first, to 7.38 billion U.S. dollars, Pakistan, second, to 11.2 billion U.S. dollars, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey close behind. The new power equipment export contracts signed over the past year, large capacity coal fired power plants has become a "going out" of the locomotive.

4. The industry is expected to benefit and high speed development is not achieved simultaneously increased. By the electricity market demand, industry enterprises, which have remained high, the size and ability to rapidly increase, but by the raw materials, component parts to resource constraints, the price rise, shortage of production capacity within the enterprise, subcontracting and other factors outside the Association increased the impact of power plant boiler Manufacturing costs rose sharply, the industry of rapid growth, did not achieve the expected benefits of the simultaneous growth, particularly in the last two years, a marked decline in industry profits.

According to branch of statistics, in 2002 the industry overall losses since 2004 with the dramatic increase in production, industry profit levels increased by leaps and bounds. Total industry profit is the highest level in history in 2006 to 26 billion in 2007 fell by 38%. The maximum value of the historical cost profit for 2004 of 12%, followed by 2 percentage points per year decline in 2007, fell to 4.18%, higher than in 2002 only 1 percentage point. The first three quarters of 2008, the industry total profits of 1.62 billion yuan, down by 21%, cost 5.7% profit margin, down 2.2 percentage points. Since the third quarter, although the price of steel and other raw materials dropped from a high point, but the average price is still high, but the impact of steel prices on the gross profit margin of at least a six month time lag, so the apparent rebound in gross profit margin power generation equipment have to wait for the second half of 2009 .

At the same time, raw material prices fall too fast and too the trend, but also make us worried about the future development of the industry, macro economic decline and economic recession in the background gives us the rapid growth of demand can not place overly optimistic forecasts, while the rapid decline in The raw material costs may lead to falling product prices, once demand growth can not compensate for the losses caused by price decline, the industry may face revenue, lower profit level of a double dilemma.

Industry Development Trend Analysis

1. Macro economic complex and uncertain trends. China's economy since 1990, continued to maintain a 10% or more period of growth appears twice: once from 1992 to 1996 China's high economic growth, the 1997 financial crisis, lasted six years of deflation, for when the market decline, orders for a small state, industries and enterprises should be very deep memory; the other one was from 2003 to 2007, the five year growth. But last year the sub prime crisis triggered by the global financial turmoil has begun to transfer to the real economy, the United States, Japan, and European economies contraction in 30 years at the same time, international demand has plummeted, while the yuan appreciation, rising production costs, such as the superposition of a number of factors led to China's exports was faced with unprecedented pressure. The global financial crisis triggered the possibility of a recession is increasing, all of which impact on how much China's economy is indeed worthy of our attention.

2. Power generation equipment market growth rate obviously slowed down. National power generation capacity in 1987, following a breakthrough 100 million kilowatts, nearly five years, a continuous realization of 400 million kilowatts and 5 million kilowatts, 600 million kilowatts, 700 million kilowatts across the four major landmark is expected in late 2008 early 2009 would breaking 800 million kilowatts. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data show that although the annual growth in output of power generating equipment, but the growth rate of the inflection point has already emerged from the 92.9% growth rate in 2004 dropped to 2007, 11.1% in first three quarters of 2008, output of power generating equipment 97.8248 million kilowatts , down by 4.3% (and in August for the first time a negative growth rate of growth). State Electricity Regulatory Commission issued the "2008 National Electric Power Industry 1 9 months Monthly Bulletin of Statistics" shows that in September 2008 GDP growth rate of 9.9%, electricity generation increased by only 9.7%, which is nearly 10 years, the first time increase in generating capacity lower than the GDP growth situation. China's energy consumption elasticity coefficient (energy consumption growth rate and economic growth rate ratio) has been less than 1 in (1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out, this figure is less than 1).

Judging from the current situation, as the state's macro control policies strengthened ,2008 2010, China's GDP growth rates slow down the inevitable, if the GDP grew at 9% and power generation equipment and GDP elasticity coefficient of 1.15 basis, to consider "big pressure small "eliminating backward production capacity factors, power generation capacity is expected in 2010 will reach 947 million kilowatts, more than the United States as the world's first (with an annual increase in installed capacity of about 78 million kilowatts). Then in 2020, China's total installed capacity goal is to much? Development and Reform Commission data is 12.5 million kilowatts, the power system forecast is 1.5 billion kilowatts, if calculated according to 1.5 billion kilowatts installed capacity, ie 2010 to 2020, 10 years approximately 553 million kilowatts installed capacity added in accordance with countries to optimize their the development of coal power, and vigorously develop hydropower, nuclear power, construction, appropriately develop natural gas power generation, encourage renewable energy and new energy power generation of structural adjustment the main line, the estimated average annual market new thermal power installed capacity of 4,300 kilowatts. New installed capacity of the chain the next few years may be a negative growth, power generation equipment, will enter a cycle of downward phase. At present, the overall capacity of power plant boiler industry at 90 million kilowatts or so, subsequent market competition will become more intense.

3. Overseas markets and not easy to be overly optimistic. From the international electricity market situation shows that in recent years the pace of development has accelerated noticeably. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries, the demand for electricity have multiplied, but their lack of capacity of power equipment, mainly rely on imports; Africa's vast and growing electricity market in South America, the recovery of the electricity market for China's exports of electrical equipment brought with them opportunities . To develop the international electricity market is a developing trend, but many overseas projects uncertainty, so that we are still not enough to open up overseas markets to make overly optimistic judgments. According to the analysis, the current international market, even in the face a seller's market, but to strengthen the favorable international market share only in 3 5 years time. Increase in the proportion of overseas orders may increase the implementation of the risk and reduce profit margins. In Indonesia, for example, in mid 2006 to the first half of 2008, signed the contract price per kilowatt increase only 30%. This reflects the awareness and ability to enterprise bargaining groups still need to be improved. This requires us to bring the international market bigger, do a good job, we should also actively explore the perspective from the business community towards the reduction of losses and improve the overall export price level of power plant boiler.

4. The industry potential risks can not be ignored. At present, industries and enterprises can be protected while in hand orders for 3 4 years of stable income, but the downstream power generation companies to improve cash flow significantly less likely, order the quality of cause for concern, it might even cause delay in delivery of the unfavorable situation.

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